How Caleb Williams’ Heisman odds moved this season; shocking historic tendencies

With the common season wrapped up and Bowl video games upon us, its formally award season. This Saturday at 8 pm ET, the Heisman Trophy winner, probably the most prestigious award of all of them, will probably be declared.

One factor is definite, the Heisman winner will probably be a quarterback.

The finalists to win the {hardware} are USC sophomore Caleb Williams, TCU senior Max Duggan, Georgia senior Stetson Bennett and Ohio State junior C.J. Stroud. 

Williams is the present heavy favourite to win, sitting at -2000 at FOX Wager.

However that wasn’t all the time the case, because the sign caller’s odds flip-flopped all through the season. Contemplating that, together with the truth that finalists reminiscent of Duggan weren’t even given odds in Week 1 to win the award, FOX Sports activities Analysis determined to do a historic deep dive on the award from a betting perspective.

Let’s soar in.

Let’s begin off with Williams, who opened the season at +1000 to win the award at FOX Wager, the third-shortest odds of any participant getting into Week 1. The one gamers with higher odds to start out the season have been final 12 months’s winner in Alabama quarterback Bryce Younger (+375) and fellow 2022 Finalist C.J. Stroud (+200). 

Williams by no means bought above +1000 till Weeks 9 and 10, when most sportsbooks, together with FOX Wager, had him within the +1200 to +1400 vary. In these weeks, USC scraped off single-digit wins towards unranked opponents in Arizona and California. 

By the point the Pac-12  Championship Sport rolled round, Williams grew to become the heavy favourite to win the award, sitting at -2000 at most books. Regardless of the loss to Utah, his 363 move yards and three touchdowns by the air cemented his spot, particularly contemplating he was visibly injured within the sport. 

Ought to he win the award because the oddsmakers predict, he’ll be the eighth USC participant to win (together with Reggie Bush’s vacated Heisman). Williams would even be the third Trojan quarterback to take action, becoming a member of Carson Palmer (2002) and Matt Leinart (2004).

Enjoyable truth, since 2000, 18 of the 22 Heisman winners have been quarterbacks.

In that very same span, solely three working backs have received the award — Derrick Henry (2015), Mark Ingram (2009), and Reggie Bush (2005, vacated). Maybe probably the most shocking winner since 2000 is DeVonta Smith in 2020 — the primary huge receiver to win the award since Desmond Howard in 1991. Smith’s odds to win have been +10000 previous to the season beginning, earlier than coming down all the way in which to +200 by the SEC championship sport. Since 2000, an SEC participant has received the award eight occasions, greater than any convention in that span. How is that for SEC domination? 

We’d even be remiss to not point out the 2016 Heisman winner, Lamar Jackson, as he was an enormous underdog to win getting into the season. Like Smith, “Motion Jackson” was tabbed at +10000 within the preseason earlier than skyrocketing to a -5000 favourite by Week 12. He was simply the third ACC participant to win the award since 2000, becoming a member of Florida State quarterbacks Jameis Winston (2013) and Chris Weinke (2000). 

Talking of Winston, he was one in every of 4 Heisman winners during the last 14 seasons who weren’t even on the board throughout most sportsbooks earlier than Week 1! Since 2009, Winston (2013), Johnny Manziel (2012), Cam Newton  (2010) and Mark Ingram (2009) weren’t listed on the oddsboards previous to Week 1 at most books throughout the nation. 

What’s much more shocking is that If you happen to exclude these 4, the typical opening odds of the opposite 9 Heisman winners since 2009 come out to a whopping +3836. For perspective on this development, Duggan was not on most boards getting into Week 1, and Bennett was +5000. 

In that very same span, the one preseason favourite to win the award was Marcus Mariota in 2014, who opened the season at +425 and was -1500 by the Pac-12 Championship Sport. One other fascinating anomaly we wish to point out is the 2012 Heisman ceremony, wherein all three finalists weren’t listed on the oddsboard previous to Week 1. Texas A&M’s Manziel, Notre Dame’s Manti Te’o and Kansas State’s Collin Klein weren’t listed at most sportsbooks earlier than the season began. Since 2009, of the 39 gamers who completed within the prime three of the Heisman voting, the typical preseason odds come out to +1797 (gamers with no odds got a price of 0). 

With that being stated, we hope this data helps you when subsequent season rolls round, because the Heisman Trophy winner is usually received by the least anticipated gamers. Are you prepared to position some bets on Caleb Williams or perhaps a darkish horse? Head over to FOX Wager now for all of your wagers earlier than Saturday! 

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