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Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports activities Betting Analyst
Right here we’re, people. We lastly made it to the final week of the school soccer common season.
After 13 weeks of ball, I am nonetheless excited to see which groups get on the market and provides it their all.
So for the ultimate time this common season, let’s dive into my greatest bets (all odds by way of FOX Guess).
No. 15 Notre Dame at No. 6 USC (7:30 p.m. ET Saturday, ABC)
Notre Dame Preventing Irish
ND
USC Trojans
USC
I’m 36 years outdated. I’ve watched soccer since I used to be 5 and have been taking part in competitively at a excessive degree since I confirmed up at Oregon a month after my 18th birthday. I retired from soccer in 2016, and since then, I nonetheless devour the game as a fan and watch school and NFL recreation movie.
I’ve by no means seen a group like USC.
The Trojans are two wins away from a playoff look with an offense that ranks second in factors per drive and a protection that’s 104th in limiting factors per offensive drive. USC’s line of defense is seventh in havoc charge and has compelled 24 turnovers this season — that is good for a group turnover margin charge of plus 21! It’s practically unimaginable to have a line of defense that good with a protection that may power that many turnovers and nonetheless be 104th in defensive factors per drive. SC has received two video games by three factors every on the highway towards ranked groups whereas forcing 4 turnovers in every recreation. There’s no solution to clarify this success.
Each fiber in my physique needs to fade USC, however that has been unhealthy enterprise. The Trojans proceed to win and canopy, simply as they did Saturday night time. So the higher play is the Over on Saturday once they host the Irish.
Notre Dame’s offense is hit and miss, however towards SC, each offense is successful. Utah scored 43, Arizona 41, Cal’s Ninety fifth-ranked offense scored 35 and UCLA — regardless of 4 turnovers on Saturday — nonetheless scored 45 factors. USC has not performed a protection like Notre Dame’s in fairly some time, however I’m undecided that it issues if Notre Dame is sweet on protection or not.
USC will rating. The Trojans at all times find yourself scoring. However is Notre Dame quick sufficient on protection to maintain up? So factors will likely be scored on Saturday. Take the factors.
PICK: Over 62 factors scored by each groups mixed at FOX Guess
No. 13 Washington at Washington State (10:30 p.m. ET Saturday, ESPN)
Washington Huskies
WASH
Washington State Cougars
WSU
The Apple Cup within the Palouse with a 7:30 p.m. native kick — have to like the house Cougars on this spot.
The forecast for Saturday night time in Pullman is chilly with moist climate, both freezing rain or snow. This isn’t preferrred for Washington’s high-powered passing assault dealing with one of the best protection they’ve seen all season. The Cougars are ranked twelfth in defensive effectivity and twenty first in factors per drive. They’re outfitted to decelerate Washington’s passing assault, which we’ve seen is feasible once they play higher defenses like Oregon State and Cal.
Sure, I’m involved about Washington State’s offense within the chilly and moist situations. The Cougars can run the ball, though they largely select to disregard that a part of their offense. They’ve a shaky offensive line which might result in stress and errors from quarterback Cam Ward.
Nonetheless, Washington’s protection mustn’t present a lot resistance. I like the house Cougars to drag a small upset on this recreation.
PICK: Washington State (+2 at FOX Guess) to lose by fewer than 2 factors (or win outright)
No. 9 Oregon at No. 21 Oregon State (3:30 p.m. ET Saturday, ABC)
Oregon Geese
ORE
Oregon State Beavers
OREST
The sport previously referred to as the Civil Warfare will likely be a low-scoring affair, and that is an unusual prevalence on this matchup.
Oregon State’s protection is legit, and the Beavers deserve extra nationwide respect. They rank thirtieth in factors per drive and twenty first in passing success charge. They battle to cease the run, however that hasn’t damage them a lot this season. They only don’t enable factors.
Oregon’s offense is excellent, however quarterback Bo Nix is hurting. He gutted by means of the Geese win on Saturday, scoring simply sufficient to beat Utah. With out Nix being full velocity, the Geese’ offense is simply much less explosive, and Oregon State’s protection will have the ability to gradual them down.
On the flip facet, Oregon State’s offense is run-based; it focuses on gaining yards by way of the bottom. They use play-action move, screens and different “simpler” choices to maneuver the ball by means of the air. Oregon’s protection is constructed to cease this offense, as we simply noticed towards Utah. I’d even make the case that the Beavers’ offense is simply Utah-light however with a worse quarterback.
I really feel assured Oregon can decelerate the Beavers. With each groups making an attempt to run the ball, this clock will run. I’ll take the Beneath.
PICK: Beneath 57 factors scored by each groups mixed at FOX Guess
Arizona State at Arizona (3 p.m. ET Friday, FS1)
Arizona State Solar Devils
ASU
Arizona Wildcats
ARIZ
The Territorial Cup has been one-sided these days, with the Solar Devils successful 5 straight towards their rival Wildcats. That streak ends this season because the Wildcats are in a significantly better place than the Solar Devils.
Arizona State fired Herm Edwards after a Week 3 loss to Jap Michigan and has solely posted two wins since. The Solar Devils beat Washington at house 45-38 and Colorado 42-34, and since then, they’ve misplaced three in a row with out overlaying a recreation. They’ve cycled by means of quarterbacks and have an honest run recreation however are very poor defensively. As a matter of reality, they rank 69th in factors per drive on offense and 128th on protection.
Their rival Wildcats have 4 wins however have been way more aggressive this season due to their offense. The Wildcats’ offense ranks thirty seventh in factors per drive and first within the nation in explosive play charge. Arizona does most of its injury by means of the air, and Arizona State has proven no means to cease any opponent from doing something.
The Wildcats have to attain as a result of their protection is terrible, however I don’t suppose the Solar Devils can take sufficient benefit of that to remain inside the quantity.
Give me the Cats.
PICK: Arizona (-4 at FOX Guess) to win by greater than 4 factors
No. 18 UCLA at Cal (4:30 p.m. ET Friday, FOX)
UCLA Bruins
UCLA
California Golden Bears
CAL
Here is an inventory of issues you are able to do as a substitute of wagering on this recreation: buy groceries, mow the garden, make a leftover turkey sandwich, throw a ball, go exercise, take a nap. You get the thought.
However in case you simply must really feel the joys of wagering on a Pac-12 recreation, take the Beneath.
UCLA’s season has “ended.” The Bruins performed rival USC robust final weekend earlier than ultimately shedding 48-45. They’re not in competition for the Pac-12 title recreation. All the things this group labored for this season after beginning 7-0 with wins over Washington and Utah is for naught, as they received’t be in Vegas making an attempt to win the convention for the primary time since 1998.
It’s simple to make the case for Cal to cowl this recreation, however guys, Cal is totally untrustworthy, and wagering a single cent on the Bears could be a waste of your cash.
Cal broke a six-game convention shedding streak towards Stanford within the Massive Sport final weekend, successful 27-20. The Bears wanted a defensive rating to cowl this recreation after their quarterback threw two interceptions in the long run zone. They rank 97th in offensive factors per drive and 82nd on protection. There’s nothing they do nicely. They aren’t going to a bowl. I have no idea their motivation for this recreation.
So you could have a recreation the place UCLA could be flat taking part in a Cal group that could be flat. Or UCLA exhibits up and dominates. Or Cal performs higher than its document, and UCLA is down unhealthy, and Cal covers this recreation.
Contemplating all of the uncertainty, the Beneath is your greatest play.
PICK: Beneath 60.5 factors scored by each groups mixed
No. 14 Utah at Colorado (4 p.m. ET Saturday, Pac-12 Community)
Utah Utes
UTAH
Colorado Buffaloes
CU
Utah is heading to Boulder after a poor efficiency in Eugene towards Oregon. Utah quarterback Cam Rising performed his worst recreation within the final two seasons. Since there’s nonetheless a risk the Utes might play within the Pac-12 title recreation, I feel Cam and his offense have a wonderful bounce-back efficiency this weekend towards Colorado.
However greater than something, Colorado could be the worst group within the sport with a lame-duck teaching employees and a roster stuffed with gamers that may quickly be searching for new houses by way of the switch portal. Within the final 5 weeks, the Buffaloes have misplaced and did not cowl towards all 4 ranked groups they’ve performed. They misplaced to Oregon State by 33, Oregon by 39, USC by 38 and Washington by 47.
Utah goes to smoke Colorado.
PICK: Utah (-29.5 at FOX Guess) to win by greater than 29.5 factors
Geoff Schwartz performed eight seasons within the NFL for 5 completely different groups. He began at proper deal with for the College of Oregon for 3 seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 choice his senior yr. He’s an NFL analyst for FOX Sports activities. Comply with him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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Publish date: 2022-11-23 09:23:09
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