Betting recap: Tennessee dropping helps sportsbooks; Patriots punt return helps bettors

Patrick Everson

FOX Sports activities Betting Analyst

Usually, we’d kick off this weekly recap with a have a look at how the bookmakers and bettors did within the Nationwide Soccer League. And the NFL Week 11 odds market undoubtedly had some attention-grabbing occurrences.

However the faculty soccer Week 12 odds market had an over-the-top Saturday that additionally shook up the School Soccer Playoff odds, so we’ve obtained to begin there. 

Unranked South Carolina’s beautiful takedown of Tennessee led the way in which, so let’s dive into the weekend playing recap.

Fall of the Vols

Earlier than Saturday’s Tennessee-South Carolina conflict, BetMGM and others have been lamenting their place on the Vols.

“Cease me in the event you heard this earlier than, however we’ll want Tennessee to not cowl this week, and the Gamecocks can be our largest want of the week,” BetMGM dealer Seamus Magee mentioned.

So when Tennessee not solely didn’t cowl the hefty 22.5-point unfold however obtained smacked by large dwelling ‘canine South Carolina 63-38, it was a boon for the books. Most oddsmakers have been simply hoping the Gamecocks may cowl the quantity, and successful outright was a pipe dream.

“We would have liked South Carolina to cowl for a good outcome,” mentioned Casey Degnon, senior threat supervisor at The SuperBook. “The Gamecocks successful outright was icing on the cake.”

Added Magee: “There have been a great deal of moneyline parlays on Tennessee.”

In these cases, all bettors wanted was for the Vols to win the sport, not cowl the unfold. Clearly, Tennessee did neither.

You Kidding Me? Playoffs?

In final week’s CFP rankings, Tennessee was No. 5, only one spot wanting qualifying for the four-team playoff. However bookmakers had Tennessee No. 4 on the championship odds board as a result of the Vols had what gave the impression to be a extra palatable path to the playoff.

Sportsbooks have been working off the idea that Tennessee would coast previous South Carolina and Vanderbilt in its ultimate two regular-season video games. So the Vols can be 11-1, and lacking the SEC title sport would truly be useful — no likelihood for a second loss. In the meantime, Ohio State and Michigan — ranked second and third — would handle one another on Nov. 26, with the loser possible falling out of the CFP and Tennessee shifting in.

Tennessee most likely noticed it that manner, too. However as they are saying, folks make plans and God laughs. Properly, God and Spencer Rattler. And bookmakers, who laughed all the way in which to the financial institution, on a number of fronts, after South Carolina’s blowout win.

“The Vols have been our worst [outcome] on the futures market,” BetMGM vice chairman of buying and selling Jason Scott mentioned.

Certainly. BetMGM and different books held enormous legal responsibility to the Vols successful the nationwide championship. Tennessee might be had at odds of 100-1 within the offseason, and there have been loads of tickets early within the season at, say, 60-1 or 40-1 because the Vols slowly climbed the ladder. That legal responsibility is all worn out.

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See-saw Sunday

Okay, let’s get to the NFL. A number of oddsmakers reported a really common Sunday. The bookies obtained some wins, the bettors obtained some wins, with neither aspect having a giant day.

Chris Andrews, sportsbook director on the South Level in Las Vegas, mentioned the Eagles-Colts end result was a double-whammy for his store.

“There have been numerous teasers and moneyline parlays on the Eagles, and so they wager the Colts on the purpose unfold. In order that was unhealthy,” Andrews mentioned.

The Eagles obtained a late landing to squeak out a 17-16 victory at Indianapolis. That both made a winner of or saved alive moneyline parlays on the Eagles, and likewise aided teaser bets. Philly closed as a 6.5-point favourite, so a 6-point teaser would have the Eagles as only a half-point favourite; due to this fact, the one-point win saved these tickets going.

On the flip aspect, the Colts lined as 6.5-point underdogs, and loads of bettors appreciated the Colts on the unfold Sunday.

BetMGM’s Scott put it fairly succinctly: “We didn’t want the Eagles’ comeback.”

Based on senior oddsmaker Chris Youn, bettors obtained the higher of the battle at WynnBet.

“It has not been an incredible day within the [risk] room,” Youn mentioned, pointing to the Lions’ modest upset of the Giants and the Raiders’ additional time win at Denver, together with the wild Jets-Patriots ending. “The Patriots overlaying on the finish of the sport with that tremendous punt return was one other unfavorable choice.”

Marcus Jones returned a punt 84 yards for a landing within the waning seconds to offer New England a 10-3 victory as a 3.5-point dwelling favourite in opposition to New York.

Previous to the Sunday evening sport, Youn mentioned: “We want the Chiefs to win and canopy to salvage our day.”

Kansas Metropolis beat the Los Angeles Chargers 27-24 on some typical late Patrick Mahomes heroics, getting a TD within the ultimate minute. However the Chiefs didn’t cowl as 5-point favorites.

Again to College

Returning to the school campus, Tennessee’s upset loss was half of a bigger pattern for the perfect groups within the nation. The highest 5 within the School Soccer Playoff rankings all didn’t cowl the unfold. The Vols have been the one one to lose outright, however:

• Georgia (-22) notched a lackluster 16-6 win at Kentucky
• Ohio State (-26) had its fingers full with Maryland a lot of the way in which in a 43-30 win
• Michigan (-17) survived in opposition to Illinois, successful 19-17 on a final-seconds discipline purpose
• TCU (-1.5) obtained off a fire-drill discipline purpose within the ultimate seconds to beat Baylor 29-28

“It’s the tip of the season, so look-ahead spots are there, and [teams are] not tremendous targeted on who they’re taking part in,” WynnBet’s Youn mentioned. “Additionally, the climate was undoubtedly an element within the Michigan and Georgia video games.”

When favorites aren’t overlaying, it’s typically a superb factor for bookmakers.

“We had a superb [Saturday] however had no actual large selections on any particular person sport,” Youn mentioned. “Simply fairly a couple of favorable outcomes that added as much as an general successful day. Baylor overlaying and the Below (whole 58) was our greatest general outcome. Pac-12 After Darkish, with USC overlaying the -2.5, was the cap to a optimistic day.”

The Trojans, whose CFP hopes markedly improved, received an offensive showdown in opposition to crosstown rival and host UCLA, 48-45.

I Like Huge Bets and I Can’t Lie

There was loads of #MajorWager exercise at a number of sportsbooks this weekend. Caesars Sports activities reported fairly a bunch of these bets. We’ll begin with one faculty bettor who plowed $1.1 million into 5 video games:

• $220,000 on Illinois +18 at Michigan (win)
• $220,000 on Nevada +22.5 vs. Fresno State (loss)
• $220,000 on Duke +7.5 at Pitt (win)
• $220,000 on Syracuse +10 at Wake Forest (push)
• $220,000 on New Mexico +14.5 vs. San Diego State (loss)

Add all of it up, and the bettor misplaced $40,000.

One other bettor went in with $575,000 throughout 5 NFL performs:

• $100,000 Texans +3 (even) vs. Commanders (loss)
• $125,000 Chargers +7.5 (-125) vs. Chiefs (win)
• $110,000 Steelers +5 vs. Bengals (loss)
• $110,000 Steelers +4.5 vs. Bengals (loss)
• $110,000 Bears +3 at Falcons (push)

So these 5 bets finally moved $220,000 into Caesars’ coffers.

Additionally, within the NFL, one Caesars buyer put a whopping $312,500 on the Payments -7.5 vs. the Lions for the neutral-site sport in Detroit. That bettor obtained fairly the sweat, with Buffalo successful 31-23 to cowl by a half-point.

Clearly, these are high-roller sorts. In order I at all times remind, by no means wager greater than you possibly can afford to lose. I misplaced #ChilisMoney on Colts moneyline, Baylor moneyline and an in-game whole wager on Cowboys-Vikings Over 45.5. I assume I’ll be eating on this week.

Patrick Everson is a sports activities betting analyst for FOX Sports activities and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He’s a distinguished journalist within the nationwide sports activities betting house. He’s primarily based in Las Vegas, the place he enjoys {golfing} in 110-degree warmth. Observe him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas. 

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